In the Press
Amwaj | Iran’s post-war economy: Three scenarios for the next 12 months
28 July 2026
Iran enters the second half of 2026 facing one of the most uncertain economic environments since the start of the Donald Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign in 2018. Recent events have fundamentally altered political priorities, accelerated the securitization of economic policymaking and increased uncertainty for the business community. Yet despite extensive physical damage and continuing sanctions, the economy has also demonstrated a high degree of resilience that has characterized Iran over the past two decades.
At this juncture, the key question is not whether the Iranian economy will survive these pressures, but rather what type of equilibrium will emerge over the next twelve months.
Amwaj | Beyond the IRGC: Inside the evolution of Iran’s military-economic complex
17 July 2026
While Iran and the US are presently engaged in an escalating military confrontation, the two sides only weeks ago agreed on a framework agreement. Assuming that the current round of escalation will also eventually result in a negotiated outcome—entailing partial sanctions relief and encouraging international companies to position themselves for a return to the Iranian market—a fundamental question will inevitably arise: is it possible to operate in Iran without engaging with businesses owned by the military establishment, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)?
To answer that question, one needs to dissect a defining characteristic of Iran’s political economy: the relationship between the military and the business community.
Will the US naval blockade severely damage Iran’s oil sector?
5 May 2026
There is presently media hype about how the US naval blockade will ostensibly lead to irreparable damage to the Iranian petroleum sector since it would have to halt production in its oil wells.
The basic premise that Iran would have to reduce production is correct, but the presented picture is incomplete. The country’s oil production is not a single pipeline that will be suffocated due to export disruptions. Incidentally, crude output matches a mosaic pattern that offers extensive resilience considering external pressure.
There is no doubt that the US blockade will create financial limitations for Tehran due to a decline in export revenues. However, such financial bottlenecks are merely a continuation of a long host of pressure tactics the US and its allies have deployed, believing that Tehran will be compelled to surrender to American demands.
Webinar | Assessing the Impacts of the Iran-Israel War
2 July 2025
This recording is from “Assessing the impacts of the Iran-Israel War” which was an hour long webinar – including a Q&A session – by Dr Bijan Khajehpour on 02 July 2025.
Some of the areas the talk addressed, were:
- the causes of escalation;
- military and diplomatic developments;
- the positioning of regional and global powers;
- the potential geopolitical consequences;
- the implications for the energy sector;
- three possible scenarios for domestic developments in Iran.
Webinar at UCLA | “The Iran–Israel War: What’s Next?”
1 July 2025
The ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, while a welcome development, has left many questions unanswered, including:
How much damage was truly done to Iran’s nuclear program? Where is the missing uranium? How long will it take Iran to restore the nuclear program and replenish its ballistic missiles? More broadly, can the weakening of Iran, and the central role of the US, lead to wider changes in the region, first and foremost to a deal to end the war in Gaza and bring all the hostages home? And what does it all mean for Israel’s and Iran’s domestic politics?
This webinar was recorded on July 1, 2025. It was organized by the UCLA Y&S Nazarian Center for Israel Studies; the Principles for Peace Foundation – Geneva, Switzerland; and the UCLA Center for Middle East Development.
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